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Monsoon Predictions – II

We are now two weeks away from the onset of monsoon, and one more participant has entered the monsoon prediction game. This time it is a Think-Tank called Centre for Mathematical Modelling and Computer Simulation, based in Bangalore.

“Indian think-tank sees 15% monsoon deficit”:http://www.rediff.com/money/2003/may/14monsoon.htm

bq. “Basically, there is a 15 per cent deficit for the whole country for the entire year,” Prashant Goswami, scientist at the Bangalore institute, told Reuters. The Centre uses sophisticated software to predict rainfall based on an analysis of patterns of past data.

This is a deadly combination: ‘think tank’ and ‘sophisticated software’. Like any other model, this one too could not predict last years drought. But no other model predicted it as well.

So at this point in time here are the main contestants with their predictions:

* Indian Met Dept: “96%”:http://varnam.nationalinterest.in/archives/000072.html
* International Research Institute: “normal”:http://varnam.nationalinterest.in/archives/000093.html
* CMMC: 85%

But then the Indian Met Dept. in a bold move made an announcement on when the monsoon will hit India. This time it will be “June 1”:http://www.expressindia.com/fullstory.php?newsid=21370. This works out fine for everyone, since June 1st is the day the schools re-open after summer holidays.

This blog will be reporting from Kerala on June 1st on this prediction (unless the Communists there, upset at the thought that rains are hitting India before China, decide to destory all communication facilities)

PS: Why are think-tanks called so ? Do they think in a tank ?

3 Responses to Monsoon Predictions – II

  1. ooma May 15, 2003 at 11:02 pm #

    Hardly.I suspect it is because they rarely think outside the box :)

    ooma

  2. Yazad May 15, 2003 at 11:29 pm #

    I used to be associated with a “think-tank” some time back — the Centre for Civil Society.

    My take is that just as water collects in a tank for storage and future use, the think-tanks collect ideas for use in the area of public policy.

  3. Shanti May 16, 2003 at 8:53 am #

    I like Ooma’s definition better ­čśŤ

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